Although it is too early to declare victory in the tablet market, the initial lead enjoyed by Apple is showing itself a formidable obstacle for Android and others to overcome. The data projections made by those who do this sort of thing are leaning sharply toward the iPad. And the existing sales data also show a huge lead by the Apple tablet. The graph below was compiled by Robert W. Bold & Co. It is based on a small sample, and it is a few months old, but it’s about all that is available for now. The question that forms the basis of the graph below is one of interest—i.e., which tablet computer would you be most interested in buying over the next six months.
There are a couple of things about this data that should be noted before any inferences are drawn. First, the survey included all screen sizes—7-inch through 10.1, where in my opinion a size division is called for. Also, the survey was taken before Asus, Acer, Sony, Motorola, etc., had any significance presence in the market. This makes it incomplete when compared with today’s market. There were more options coming but not announced when this survey was done, and some of those announced have already been withdrawn from the market.
Nevertheless, it does give us something of an idea of what the new competitors are to expect when they go up against the iPad. Although more recent sales figures confirm Apple’s dominance in the market, this does not mean there are not viable competitors. It’s just that they haven’t had time to hone their marketing and designs to the sharpness required to be effective.
A recent report of RIM’s Blackberry Playbook is not reassuring. About 500,000 of Research in Motion PlayBooks were sold in the device’s first quarter compared to 9.25 million iPads sold over the same period, according to a report. The second quarter, just announced a day or so ago are even worse. The Canadian firm sold only 200,000 in the second quarter. This is less than half the expected rate of sales. RIM’s profits were down over 50% because of this and other factors relating to their anemic smart phone sales.
Bloomberg cites a survey of analysts who predict RIM will sell around 2.2 million PlayBooks for the full year. Michael Walkley, an analyst with Canaccord Genuity, estimates RIM will ship 1.5 million tablets in 2011, according to the report.
It is important to remember that there are still some significant shoes to fall before the final tally can be made. The shoes I’m speaking of include a better version of Android-based tablets that has only recently been released. All the reviews in this piece have the new Android system.
Then, of course, there is Microsoft’s new Windows OS, Windows 8. It is taking aim directly at Apple’s iOS. Microsoft’s new entry will be oriented to touch operations, and it will run on the ARM processors as well as Intel’s x86 chips. This will, for the first time, make the important Windows applications such as Word for Windows, PowerPoint and Excel available on ARM-based tablets. Bringing these Microsoft legacy applications to the ARM community will turn the tablet from an almost completely passive (comsumption) device into one that can actively and easily produce content. Click here for a hands-on preview of Windows 8 running on a tablet
I don’t think the importance of this can be over-stated. But it cannot be known how successful it will be in its implementation. As a company, Microsoft is too big and too powerful to dismiss. But their track record in the tablet arena also gives serious cause for doubting their ability to make the transition to a new way of operating a computer. Microsoft ruled the mouse-centric world. Can they make this happen for our fingers? It will be another year before a clear judgment on this question can be made.
For Android devices, in spite of their progress, they are still playing catch-up, and they have not done so yet. So it is impossible to feel confident about any projection about how they will do in the future.
Projections for the Tablet Market
A new projection of the tablet market was recently released by the research arm of JP Morgan. Their take does not give much comfort to iPad competitors. The runaway success of the iPad2 forced them to change their total tablet sales projection for this year. They now project 51.9 million tablet units for this year, with the iPad taking about 71% of the market. The Apple share will fall, though, according to their projections, to 62.8% by the end of 2012.
These numbers would have astounded the industry if they had been made last year when the iPad was first introduced. The tablet format has taken the industry by storm as the new form factor carves out a big bite of industry sales.
Implications for the Future of the Tablet Market
One implication of the state of dominance achieved by the iPad is that for Android and other operating systems to compete, they must do it on price first and on features second. The main reason for this is that Apple has too long a lead in working with a touch interface. They began selling iPods on November 10, 2001, and they have steadily advanced the touch interface since that date. Perhaps the other OS developers will catch up some day, but they haven’t done so yet. In my view, this puts the price of competing devices as their primary vehicle for gaining market share.
The pricing policies of a few of the new entrants reflect this reality. Acer has a thicker and heavier tablet, the Iconia Tab A500, which has a suggested retail price of $449. This is $50 under the lowest iPad. And it has a few features—flash and I/O ports—that offer some advantages in their own right. The $449 price has already been breached by several retailers—edging down toward the $399 mark.
Asus has followed the strategy with its interesting Eee Transformer (reviewed below). At $399 SRP it comes in on the low side, but it also has an ingenious keyboard arrangement that optionally makes it a virtual netbook without losing the touch screen capabilities.
The second thing that is clear is that the 7-inch tablet is not an effective substitute for a full sized tablet with a 9.7-inch or 10.1-inch screen. Manufacturers that are pricing their 7-inchers close to $500 are going to be sitting on their inventory for a long time. A screen of that size simply does not compete effectively with tablets that have similar features but with larger screens. There are legitimate uses of these smaller devices, but serious surfing is not one of them. Surfing with the tiny viewing area is clumsy and frustrating to use, although the a new 7-incher from HTC (The HTC Flyer) does a good job of getting a full web page to display in a readable format on their small screen.
The reality of the limits of seven inches is slowly being reflected in the retail channels. The original 7-inch entry, the Galaxy Tab 7, is now retailing for $200 with a two-year contract for data services. At this price it is a viable product. At $499 it was not. RIM has just recognized this unpleasant fact. The $499 price for the BlackBerry Playbook has kept buyers away in droves. RIM announced just last week that they will be lowering the price of the Playbook and enhancing its software. For now, Canadian buyers can bet the 16GB model of the Playbook for $299. But whether this new price will be adopted for American sales is not yet known.
The same will be true of the HTC Flyer. Both these tablets are fine pieces of equipment, but they don’t find traction at $500. I look for big price drops on all of the smaller tablets. The Nook Color is doing well at $250, and Amazon’s rumored 7-incher will, too. Whatever the executives in Taipei, Seoul, Seattle or Ottawa may have thought, they had better think again.
On this issue of size, Samsung seems to have caught on. Their replacement for their original Tab 7 will be almost an inch longer. And, a few others are experimenting with 8.x sized screens. I don’t know where the size will settle out, but Radio Shack is offering the Tab 7.7 for $349 with a two-year Sprint contract for data services.
To get my own biases out of the way, I own an iPad 2 and a Galaxy Tab 7 as well as a Windows desktop and a Lenovo ultra-portable Windows machine. I use these Windows devices extensively for daily computing work, including posting to my blog and all of my writing.
The tablets are used for other things where portability and immediacy are needed. I use the iPad extensively for on-the-go surfing, eMail, e-Reading and quick research if I am not at my desk.
The 7-inch Galaxy tab I got because I need a 3G/4G hotspot, and rather than pay Verizon $100 for a 3G-only device, I paid $200 for the Tab and get a wider set of features than a simple hotspot can provide. In practice, I use the 7-inch device for eReading, hotspot use, e-Mail and other utilities. It has, to my surprise, become my eReader of choice. I like its small size when holding it to read—it isn’t heavy or bulky, and I can stuff it in my back pocket when on the move.
Worthy Competitors to the iPad
There is no definitive way of trimming the long list of Android devices to a manageable size. I have reviewed numerous lists of the top five and top ten competitors, and there are some machines that seem to come out on or close to the top on most lists.
From my own experience of working with those that I can find at my local Best Buy or Office Max, I find the following large screen tablets to be viable competitors.
1. The Galaxy Tab 10.1 from Samsung.

It has a 10.1-inch screen, but it is the about the same weight as the iPad2. It is thin, easy to hold, and its operations are quick and smooth. It compares favorably with Motorola’s Xoom but is lighter and faster.
Reviews have been uniformly good. Its light weight and ease of handling are mentioned as is its smooth operations. PC World has a thorough review of the WiFi model Click Here. The reviewer praises the Tab for its superior design and the way it works.
“Happily for Samsung, the Tab 10.1–available in limited distribution starting today, starting at $499 for a 16GB version–parlays its design and its Android 3.1 operating system into a machine that vaults to the head of the Android pack.”
For specifications: “Like other Honeycomb tablets, the Tab 10.1 runs Nvidia’s Tegra 2 platform, with a dual-core 1GHz processor and 802.11a/b/g/n Wi-Fi. The Tab 10.1 has many of the now-standard tablet accouterments like rear- and front- facing cameras (3- and 2-megapixels, respectively, with rear flash), a gyroscope, an accelerometer, a digital compass, and an ambient light sensor.”
Criticism included the lack of built-in ports. To get a USB or SD port an additional attachment must be purchased that fits into the proprietary port that doubles as a charging connection.
There is also a Verizon version of the Tab 10.1 that has LTE 4G. A review by Nerdles praises the speed, but dislikes the costs of the contract for data services and for using it has a hot spot. Click Here for LTE review.
2. The Sony Tablet S

Sony’s new tablet is doing some unique things. Its main physical feature is a unique design that allows it to sit at a slight angle when resting on its back, making typing easier with a slant.
It will also run PlayStation 3 games, and it features a bevy of additional software options that tightly integrate it with Sony’s eReader software and reader store. It is also light and the reviewers are gratified with the way it feels in the hand. Its wedge-shaped design distributes its weight well for ease of handling.
Walt Mossberg, technical editor of the Wall Street Journal posted a review of the Sony Tablet S. Click Here for the review. Mr. Mossberg takes a generally positive view of the Sony device, saying it is the only tablet out that is not trying to look like the iPad.
CNet has a video review Click Here for CNet Review
The CNet review is quite positive, the major complain being its price ($499 for the 16GB model). The overall design is good and has some interesting and unique features. In my brief encounter with it I place it a close second to the Galaxy Tab 10.1. For PlayStation fans it may take the top spot. Regardless, it is an excellent tablet, well thought out and well executed.
3. Acer Iconia A500

The Acer A500has a 10.1-inch screen and retails about $400. Although thicker and heavier than the iPad 2, its low price and good build quality make it an attractive prospect. AT&T recently announced their 3G/4G version, A501, that has cell phone connectivity. The 4G part is not true 4G, i.e. LTE. Rather AT&T includes radios for HSPA+ network. Not true 4G in speed, it is faster than 3G, but AT&”T has no choice but go this way for now since they haven’t built out their LTE network. It will probably be a couple of years before they catch Verizon in this effort, but they will have their “almost 4G” to offer in the meantime.
Bottom Line
Acer Iconia Tab is a great, reasonably priced choice if you want to access your content via USB sources, but the current limitations of Android 3.0 and what you can do with that content via USB, coupled with this tablet’s display quirks, still make it a qualified recommendation.
CNet Review: http://reviews.cnet.com/8301-19736_7-20055061-251.html
Engadget Review: http://www.engadget.com/2011/04/26/acer-iconia-tab-a500-review/
4. Asus Eee Transformer

The Asus Transformer brings even a lower entry price with the option of an ingenious keyboard arrangement that transforms the 10.1-inch tablet into a virtual netbook. Reviews of its operation have generally been good.Video of Transformer Demo
Specification for the Eee Transformer
· NVIDIA® Tegra™ 2 1.0GHz dual-core CPU for excellent multitasking & HD video playback
· Android 3.2 Honeycomb O.S. with Adobe® Flash® 10.2 support*2
· Full QWERTY keyboard, touchpad input with Polaris® Office® for mobile productivity
· 16*1 hours long battery life for all day computing with mobile docking
· Brilliant IPS panel with ultra-wide 178⁰ viewing angle made from scratch resistant and super tough glass
· One year of Unlimited ASUS WebStorage, two USB ports, SD and Micro SD card readers for easy sharing & storage expandability.
· 3D stereo with max bass response with SRS premium sound
For the PC Magazine review of the Transformer: Click Here.
Concluding their review is the statement: “The Asus Eee Pad Transformer TF101 distinguishes itself from the sea of emerging Honeycomb tablets with its aggressive pricing, and an optional accessory that turns it into a virtual notebook.”
5. Toshiba Thrive

Toshiba, once the dominant player in the portable computing space, is also being heard from with a nice 10.1-inch tablet, the Thrive. This new tablet features full-sized USB and SD ports. It also has an excellent file system that supports file transfers between external computers. Although heavier and bulkier than, say, the Galaxy Tab 10.1, the presence of built in, full-sized external ports will be appealing to many who need to integrate their tablets with other computers.
The Engadget Review is Here They report a somewhat fat and heavy tablet, but they conclude its full sized ports and excellent file system make it a worthy offering for those who need these kinds of differences. Its speed of operation is typical for Android 3.1 operations.
All of the above tablets have features that make them worthy competitors to the Apple Pad2. The precise one that may fill the bill for you will depend on your own needs.
My own favorites of these mentioned are the Galaxy Tablet 10.1 and the Sony Tablet S. Both are light and easy to hold and their operations are smooth and consistent. Android is not a perfect substitute for iOS, but it is entirely workable, and the enhanced features all these manufacturers build into their devices may make them more appropriate for your uses.
Also, there are some new ones on the horizon. Motorola’s Xoom is slated for an upgrade soon, for example, and Windows 8 devices may be on the market after the first of the year, or, more likely, later. A year or two from now I cannot guess as to which brands will be on top and which on bottom. But the ones shown here will be in the mix short of some unknowable breakthrough between now and then.
